2024 Presidential Race Stays Static In The Face Of Major Events, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; RFK Jr. Receives 22% As Independent Candidate In 3-Way Race | Quinnipiac University Poll (2024)

Following a month marked by a war breaking out between Israel and Hamas, global tensions ratcheting up, a mass shooting, and a former president in court for a civil fraud trial, both the 2024 presidential primary races for each party and the general election race show little change, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of registered voters released today.

In the Republican primary race, former President Donald Trump receives 64 percent support among Republican and Republican leaning voters, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 15 percent support; former United Nations Ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley with 8 percent support; and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy with 3 percent support each. All other listed Republican candidates receive 1 percent or less support.

Among Republican and Republican leaning voters who support a candidate in the 2024 Republican presidential primary, 46 percent say they are firmly set on their choice for the Republican nomination no matter what happens leading up to the Republican primary, while 52 percent say they might change their candidate choice depending on what happens leading up to the Republican primary.

In the Democratic primary race, President Joe Biden receives 77 percent support among Democratic and Democratic leaning voters, followed by author Marianne Williamson with 8 percent support, U.S. Representative from Minnesota Dean Phillips with 6 percent support, and political commentator Cenk Uygur with 2 percent support.

Among Democratic and Democratic leaning voters who support a candidate in the 2024 Democratic presidential primary, 34 percent say they are firmly set on their choice for the Democratic nomination no matter what happens leading up to the Democratic primary, while 63 percent say they might change their candidate choice depending on what happens leading up to the Democratic primary.

GENERAL ELECTION

In a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, 47 percent of registered voters support Biden, while 46 percent support Trump, a virtual dead heat. This is unchanged from Quinnipiac University's August and September national polls.

In today's poll, Democrats support Biden 94 - 4 percent and Republicans support Trump 94 - 4 percent. Independents are split, with 45 percent supporting Trump and 44 percent supporting Biden.

"Trump goes to war with the American legal system, while Biden wrestles with military conflicts on two fronts. Despite the swirling tumult, the partisan criticism, and rancor, the two candidates are still as tied as tied can be," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

GENERAL ELECTION WITH INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES

When the hypothetical 2024 general election matchup broadens to include environmental lawyer and anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. who is running as an independent candidate, Biden receives 39 percent support, Trump receives 36 percent support, and Kennedy receives 22 percent support.

Among independents, 36 percent support Kennedy, 31 percent support Trump, and 30 percent support Biden.

When progressive activist Cornel West who is running as an independent candidate is added to make a four-person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup, voters give Biden 36 percent support, Trump 35 percent support, Kennedy 19 percent support, and West 6 percent support.

Among independents, 33 percent support Kennedy, 30 percent support Trump, 27 percent support Biden, and 8 percent support West.

"With minority and younger voters seeming intrigued, Kennedy, for now, enjoys the kind of demographic support his charismatic father and uncles generated decades ago," added Malloy.

2024 VOTING ENTHUSIASM

In measuring motivation to vote in next year's presidential election, 48 percent of voters say they are more motivated to vote than in past presidential elections, while 9 percent say they are less motivated, and 42 percent say they are just as motivated as usual.

Republicans show the most enthusiasm among party groups with 58 percent saying they are more motivated to vote in next year's presidential election than in past presidential elections. This compares to Democrats (47 percent) and independents (45 percent).

BIDEN

Voters give President Joe Biden a negative 39 - 58 percent job approval rating, similar to a negative 38 - 56 percent job approval rating Biden received in a Quinnipiac University national poll on October 17.

Voters were asked about Biden's handling of...

  • the response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine: 47 percent approve, 46 percent disapprove, with 7 percent not offering an opinion;
  • the nation's policy toward Israel: 44 percent approve, 44 percent disapprove, with 12 percent not offering an opinion;
  • the response to the war between Israel and Hamas: 42 percent approve, 46 percent disapprove, with 12 percent not offering an opinion;
  • the economy: 40 percent approve, 57 percent disapprove, with 3 percent not offering an opinion;
  • foreign policy: 36 percent approve, 59 percent disapprove, with 5 percent not offering an opinion;
  • gun violence: 32 percent approve, 60 percent disapprove, with 8 percent not offering an opinion;
  • the situation at the Mexican border: 27 percent approve, 64 percent disapprove, with 9 percent not offering an opinion.

HOUSE SPEAKER

When voters were asked about Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives choosing Congressman Mike Johnson of Louisiana to be the new Speaker of the House, 39 percent approve of the choice, while 41 percent disapprove, and 20 percent did not offer an opinion.

Among Republicans, 76 percent approve of choosing Johnson, while 7 percent disapprove, and 17 percent did not offer an opinion.

GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN THREAT

If Congress fails to pass a government funding bill by November 17th, prompting a government shutdown, 44 percent of voters think Republicans in Congress would bear more responsibility, and 27 percent think Democrats in Congress would bear more responsibility, while 22 percent volunteer that both parties would bear responsibility.

1,610 self-identified registered voters nationwide were surveyed from October 26th - 30th with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey included 666 Republican and Republican leaning voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points and 695 Democratic and Democratic leaning voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Email poll@qu.edu, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

2024 Presidential Race Stays Static In The Face Of Major Events,
Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds;
RFK Jr. Receives 22% As Independent Candidate In 3-Way Race | Quinnipiac University Poll (2024)

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